The future of release windows…

So back in the past we had the theatrical release window and then, nothing.  Now we have the theatrical release window, the DVD release window, the download window, satellite windows, terrestrial windows etc.  And why?  To maximise profits from the film.  Each step was to encourage increased sales in that particular window.  But now with the ‘digital revolution’ is this under threat?

It used to be recently that the theatrical window had become virtually a shop ‘window’ for the release of the film, to get it into press and the minds of the consumers so that when the DVD came out, the real money could be made on DVD sales.  But with DVD sales falling due to threats of piracy, downloads and increased availability, the DVD release is no longer the money-making exercise it once was.  See here for an interesting article from the Guardian, which points out the decline in DVD sales for movies that performed badly at the Box Office.  So if a big theatrical release with a large P&A spend doesn’t guarantee income from DVD sales, what is the future for theatrical windows?

With the help of digital, more and more films (specifically the big blockbusters) are reliant on a big opening weekend to make their money back.  It’s a question of build the hype and get it out everywhere all at once so that people go to see it before bad press and bad word of mouth reduce audiences.  Now this doesn’t apply to everything, but it does make you think that if DVD sales are under threat, are the big producers willing to take a gamble on the second DVD window?  It already costs them twice in terms of advertising; once for the theatrical release, and then again for the DVD release.  And if DVD prices continue to fall, taking with them the potential revenues, would it not be better to release on a multi-platform level and maximise the revenues all in one go?  After all, if you consider that the primary markets for these blockbusters are the 16-24 year olds, and you consider that the market most likely to download / share a copy of a newly released blockbuster are the same, then wouldn’t releasing the film in cinemas and on DVD at the same time make sense?  Although I’m only speculating, I’d imagine that most of the people that bought a DVD had already seen it at the cinema, so in terms of different windows reaching different audience sectors, this isn’t an argument.  If you went to see a film at the cinema, loved it and then had the opportunity to buy the DVD at a reduced price in the foyer on the way out, wouldn’t you do that?

Of course the exhibitors won’t like it.  Earlier this year in response to the multi-platform release of low-budget British feature Mum & Dad from Revolver entertainment the Cinema Exhibitors Association reacted predictably… (here).  Ok, this isn’t a Hollywood release, and wasn’t much of a threat to anyone, but it shows the passions this kind of move provokes.  But are exhibitors in a position to prevent the shortening or even disappearance of theatrical windows?  Does the power not lie with the big studios, and the big distributors (which are mostly owned or integrated into the big studios)?

If the point of staggering releases across the different platforms in order to make money doesn’t hold anymore in today’s market, and indeed means increased spending in terms of multiple advertising then wouldn’t it be more efficient for a studio to release it across all platforms?  Earlier this year, Curzon Artificial Eye, one of the most forward thinking exhibition and distribution companies, released The Edge of Heaven at cinemas at the same time as on Sky Box Office  (see here) and whilst there aren’t any official figures available, with the idea repeated with the film Julia, CurzonAE CEO Philip Knatchbull was reported as saying ‘In our first partnership with Sky on Edge of Heaven there was evidence to show that our simultaneous release did not have a marked effect on cinema admissions, in fact it fulfilled a previously unrealised appetite for independent films amongst a wider public.’   Obviously these are smaller, independent films and not the big budget Blockbusters, but if we reach a tipping point where the majors start to see overwhelming advantages in terms of reduced advertising spends and piracy prevention for multi-platform releases for the majority of their films (remember that the studio system is based on a 1 in 10 or so hit rate in order to remain profitable) will we start to see the end of some of the major release windows?